Dimensions of scenario
Disruptive environment
Trust in government
Government focus on core business
Short abstract
In a rapidly changing, confusing world, citizens do not have much trust in public administration and hence become self-responsible. The government focus on their core business, however, persists in its role as care-taker for society but fails. There is a large social gap
The scenario characteristics in brief
| Contextual environment | Government | ICT |
|
Individualism
Social Divide (education, income, aging society) Protectionism of national economy Rejection of Europeanization Mobility in Europe/ central registers Intensive international tensions |
Security more important than privacy
Government are not able to reach public welfare at all levels No interest in legislative Transparent legislative Outsourcing, PPPs |
Internet-wide attacks and tackles cause restricted availability and low reliability of essential ICT services
Security measures (e.g. Identity management, crisis management) Automated services and processes Convergence of ICT |
The scenario characteristics in detail
Contextual environment
In the first decades after the turn of the century, society has changed dramatically. Demographic effects and an individualistic mentality put the society under large pressure. First of all, the numerical overweight of elderly people has been reflected in their power over political issues. They advocate their own interest at the expense of those of younger generations. Active participation and hard working are necessities for everyone not yet being retired, in order to be able to carry the financial burden of pensions and healthcare for the older generations. As the labor force could not only have been fed by domestic growth, large immigration streams from outside the EU have taken place. Also, many people from the member states that joined the European Union in 2005 chose for a more prosperous life in the states of the older members.
A social division is not only visible between generations, but also within the working classes. The gap between blue- and white-collar work has widened. Education and social positions are key determinants for one's success in society, but class divisions are hard to break. Maybe because of this increased segregation, many people turn around globalization forces, and reject further liberalization of the economy. They favor a mild version of protectionism, and stick to their national of regional identity. The hoped-for development of a European identity is only visible among several of the most successful people, but as such is not wide-spread. This poses conflicting demands on national governments; although the higher classes wanted further European integration, they are outnumbered by the demands for a more modest approach that primarily focuses on national interests, a movement started with the rejection of the second version of the European constitution in 2008. An element that has been extensively worked out, is the strengthening of the power of the regions, especially important in countries that traditionally do not have a very homogeneous culture.
However, people are very eager to move to another part of Europe if ? in the case of lower-educated people ? this increases their chances on work. For the elite, mobility is not only a way of making money and getting the best out of their careers, but also a symbol of status.
The sharpening of distinctions is not only visible in Europe, but has also leaded to more intense international tensions. Inspired by religion poorer countries of the world continued terrorism against the west. The era of conventional terrorism has been replaced by more subtle, hence high impact means. The battlefield has shift to cyberspace, where denial of service attacks and intrusions have put the availability and reliability of essential ICT services under pressure. The threat of terrorism has shift the balance between security measures and privacy protection dramatically. Government intrusion in gathering information is all around and generally accepted.
Governments and their stakeholders
The accumulation of rapid changes in society has put demands on government that have not been fulfilled. The strong belief people still had in the pervasive role of government in society, and its responsibility to act in the interest of the general public by advocating the common good in all areas thinkable, contributed to these unrealistic demands. As a result of the inability of government to deliver what is asked for, a deep feeling of distrust amongst the population exists. This fundamental problem has provided a breeding ground for many new political parties and interest groups recently, but they failed too, leaving the public with frustration about government's capabilities to deal with social issues. Therefore, people are not very willing to participate in public decision-making anymore, and a result of this disinterest, government does not face tough control by the media or the general public, leading to non-transparent decision-making by old-fashioned bureaucrats.
Somewhat surprisingly, the government still has high ambitions to solve societal problems. This is a reaction on the more individualistic society and a previously held strong belief in the market. It has become clear that the interaction of private parties alone can result in socially disadvantageous situations, which can only be resolved by governmental intervention. Government includes private parties in the delivery of electronic services and is able to focus on their core business. The government has set the right conditions and the quality of eServices is quite high. Government did recognize the increased heterogeneity of its citizens and adapted the services so that they are easily customizable and highly personalized. To reduce operating costs, a necessity now that skilled labor is so scarce, the virtual channel can almost function as a complete substitute for its physical counterpart. To speed up the development of new services and enhance trust, government decided to develop a technical standard for identity management, backed by a solid legal framework.
Technology
All people carry a personal device for identification, information processing, visualization of information, and payment. Technologies have converted and the devices have intelligence to continue adjust to the ever-changing preferences of the user and to the environment. Therefore, all services can be customized and location-based. The devices manage identity, profiling and information exchange with governments and companies. Over time, these devices are also able to expand a citizen?s personal profile and preferences. The devices are used to observe / monitor people, when an accident happens all information of all people involved become automatically available to the first responders.
