Dimensions of scenario
Disruptive environment
Distrust in government
Government focus on core business
Short abstract
Two-class- society: On the one hand young, well-educated citizens always on the move and always on the run. On the other hand there are old citizens with only a view understanding of existing ICT. Society has become largely individualistic, with only a small role for government that is distrusted. A disruptive environment characterized through severe tensions in the world and in the EU with a large social divide is the reason why citizens demand security, and ICT is deployed for that purposes, as well as to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of government. Governments play a limited role in solving societal problem.
The scenario characteristics in brief
| Contextual environment | Government | ICT |
|
Social & Digital Divide Disruptive environment (Terrorism, religious wars) Economy assume power (Profit more important than privacy) Less participation Individualism, self-responsibility Nationalism Europe fails |
Competition between public agencies and regions (Problems to provide essential services among other things through obsolete ICT) Restricted role in regulation & public administration Simplification of processes and organizational structures Outsourcing (different qualities, if provided by private sector) Depersonalized interaction |
Remote monitoring (context-dependent privacy protection) Automated services Less Open-Source Software deployment Low interoperability E-Participation E-Services Crisis management systems |
The scenario characteristics in detail
Contextual environment
Several disruptive developments over the last years have torn different social groups apart. Government has not been able to deal satisfactorily with the challenges posed by the causal chain that started with an aging population, a consequent lack of workforce and finally a massive immigration stream from outside the European Union. Big changes have not only been visible in Europe, but throughout the world. Inequality and religious intolerance has led to an amplification of religious tensions and terrorism that is now partially directed towards critical infrastructures. Western power blocks have advocated a further simplification of international trade so as to strengthen interdependencies and bring more peace and stability to the world, but this has not solved problems around non-state bound terrorist groups or trends towards orthodox forms of tribalism. Apart from that Europe fails and the single member states refocus on their national objectives in particular with regard to protectionism of own economy. Shift from public welfare towards more emphasizes economic growth leads also to a shift of powers. Consumers of public services provided by private parties have no chance to protect their data because profit is more important with regard to economics than privacy protection. Besides, security is generally valued more important than privacy, too, which has even lead to a weakening of the separation of powers, now that the executive can bypass the judiciary when it comes to fighting terrorism.
Governments and their stakeholders
The European Union has, in the eyes of most citizens, not taken up a key role in solving the major social problems, which lead to a conservative reaction. People nowadays are more nationalistic than some ten or twenty years before. The economic policy of government has shifted towards a more orthodox economic policy, in which individuals get all room, but at the same time all responsibility, too, for the maximization of their happiness. A social gap in chances exists between blue- and white-collar workers, and between the elderly and the less prosperous younger generations. When it comes to the use of ICT, however, the generational balance is reversed, as now the young have more opportunity space to communicate with larger social networks than ever before, and be mobile throughout the union so that the best job can always be found. In several sectors, like healthcare and education, a severe lack of workforce exists, which is a serious obstacle to further economic growth and problems with the provision of essential services.
The more limited role of government is also visible in its attitude towards the scope of regulation and public administration. Procedures and organizational structures have been drastically simplified, as not to disturb citizens and the forces of the market more than necessary. An advantage of this restructuring of government is that culture at different agencies has converged, so that cooperation and unified policies today are more feasible.
Because of the greater belief in individual power over collective arrangements, people are less interested in politics. This is reinforced by the depersonalization of governmental interaction with the population; technocratic means of enforcing compliance are being used, among which remote monitoring and devices are implanted under the skin with which people can be tracked and extreme behavior monitored. E-participation has been set up, but its value is questionable: small numbers of politically engaged people participate for the sake of participation, thereby not being representative nor exerting real influence.
Government is in the position to withhold people from certain rights on the ICT infrastructures as a way of prevention and punishment. Although technologically very different, the concept resembles the one of digital rights management in the private sector that is ubiquitous by now.
E-Services provided by government are primarily aimed at efficiency; they are designed for the average user, and only where they directly deal with the small governmental tasks, are they being provided by government.
Though people have asked for this state-individual balance, now a strong reversing movement is coming up. It is clear that certain public roles are not fulfilled anymore, and collective action should be taken on for instance the rapidly decreasing quality of the environment, long deemed to be an issue of demand versus supply.
Technology
Technology is aimed at supporting the individual at any place and any time and ubiquitous networks have been developed. Technology makes e-learning the standard and programs of education are customizable by individuals wherever they are. Individual identities are fully authenticated, but no privacy protection exists ? each person takes care of protecting his or her own data.
