Dimensions of scenario
Stable environment
Distrust in government
Government focus on core business
Short abstract
People have become more and more individualistic and self-responsible. They want to get individual responsibilities as a mean to get the maximum out of their potential and for social security purposes. Government only takes care of essential facilities; because of the stable environment the private sector is in the position to compensate the lack of capacity of the public sector.
The scenario characteristics in brief
| Contextual environment | Government | ICT |
|
Mobility Europeanization Inclusive society, no digital divide Data protection Self-responsibility Individual networks Clans and cliques play a major role |
Legislative power is fairly distributed Participation levels are very low Outsourcing, Public-Private-Partnerships Flatter hierarchies Role of national governments has weakened No personalized services Low quality of government services |
Handling information overload Context-based translation services Contact networks uses P2P exchange mechanism Information and knowledge management Personal broker |
The scenario characteristics in detail
Contextual environment
The average citizen is a true cosmopolitan. He is not hindered by geographic boundaries, but picks that environment that best suits his need at a specific moment in time. As a result, the role of national governments has weakened, in favor of European arrangements, backed by a strong sense of belonging to the European Union. Increased individualization called for a tolerant society in which decision-making powers are fairly distributed. Privacy protection has made a comeback, in a period of relative stabilization in the world.
People are expected to fill in their own potential and take responsibility for that, which also includes the responsibility for the amount and quality of one's education. In educational programs, the usage of ICT is central. This created the opportunity for government and private parties to offer eServices to a broad range of the population, as no digital divide is visible.
In line with what was expected by forecasters, the individualistic mentality resulted in a sharp decline of the interest and participation in politics. Government has taken technology as the cornerstone of monitoring the behavior of its citizens, with a focus on the compliance with rules. Technology was believed to be the best alternative in finding a way between the conflicting demands of an increased mobility and anonymity and a need to draw clear lines about what is accepted in the public place. A general feeling of distrust in government's ability to deliver the quality individuals expect from themselves has arisen. However, as it is in nobody's direct interest to try to change this ? now that government has withdrawn from many tasks, its impact on daily life is small after all ? participation levels are very low.
Governments and their stakeholders
As a way of keeping up with the demands for quality where possible, government has left the execution of many services to private parties, including the biggest economical sector: healthcare. Public private partnerships are used in a limited number of cases, as government does not want to be involved too much in non-core services on the one hand, and the core services (typical state tasks like security) are not suitable for outsourcing. Maybe because of this sharp distinction, governmental service provisioning is not very innovative. Most services are targeted at the average citizen, with low synergies between physical and online channels. Single sign-on and the public key infrastructure set up by many governments a decade ago, have failed because of organizational barriers. The low quality of government services adds up to the gap between government and the public.
Technology
Individuals have found ways to deal with the loads of information they have to process to be successful in today's society. ICT is being used to bridge cultures and languages, by providing context-aware translation services. As each individual is part of different social and business networks, ICT is increasingly being used to maximize the potential value that exists in these networks of contacts, by using peer-to-peer exchange mechanisms and technologies for all kinds of information. This helps people in distinguishing relevant from irrelevant information, and in getting a grasp on information quality. As a consequence of the fact that information is power, hierarchies have flattened even more. A second mechanism that increased personal power and efficiency is the rise of personal brokers, small software tools or organizations that match the demand and supply of information, based on personal preferences. These brokers do actively monitor certain information demands and suggest actions. For instance, they annually check whether the insurance policy can better be moved to another company and prepare all the administrative tasks to accomplish this.
