Dimensions of scenario
Stable environment
Trust in government
Government focus on core business
Short abstract
Disruptive developments that were predicted at the start of the 21st century did not occur or had only a modest effect on Europe's societies. Because of the stable environment government adopts a facilitating, but limited role in society, which attitude is broadly supported.
The scenario characteristics in brief
| Contextual environment | Government | ICT |
|
Mobility Europeanization Inclusive society: Integration of aging society Change of public values (less privacy for more security) Privacy (exceptions only for crucial security purposes) Simplification of global trade |
Transparent decision-making process (policy formulation) Balanced ambient monitoring (policy enforcement) Out-sourcing (policy execution) No personalized service provision Flatter hierarchies |
Intelligent software, workflows at the back-office Reduced physical front-office (eServices) Prosecution in the internet and through ICT Remote monitoring, artificial intelligence, semi-automated jurisdictional systems (policy enforcement) eMoney Technical standards: identification mechanism One unique user identity, identity management Multi-channel access |
The scenario characteristics in detail
Contextual environment
The external environment has not changed very much over the recent decades. While several warnings have been given about a potential social divide, terrorism, individual chances and power are fairly distributed between generations, income groups and people from different ethnic backgrounds. This is partly due to a society, in which broad layers of the population are acquainted with the use of ICT in daily life, including the elderly, who outnumber youngsters by a factor two. Though ICT and further European integration have increased the chances for mobility, people are reluctant to move between European countries and to give up the certainties they derive from belonging to a nation and stick to a limited geographical area. The positive effects of European integration are clear, though. The union has been able to contribute positively towards a relatively stable world, in which religious wars have been settled, and feared highly agile cyber crimes have not developed into a serious threat to the provision of critical ICT infrastructures and services (e.g. semi-automated jurisdictional systems, identity management, remote monitoring, etc.). The general attitude towards the union is a positive one, and a sense of European citizenship has developed (proud to be European).
Being old no longer is an excuse to withdraw oneself from society, nor does society end its ties with people once they reach a certain age. People from older generations are still partially active as employees or entrepreneurs. Together with reforms in the social sector, which stimulate life long working and rebalanced the income redistribution of younger workers to the elderly, and an increase in labor productivity, no major immigration has taken place. This is one of the reasons why the feared polarization between population groups from different ethnicities did not occur. In effect, people are entitled to much the same chances, and economically are becoming more equal.
Maybe these relatively stable circumstances contributed to the fact that the overall feeling about government's capabilities to adequately settle important social issues is positive. Trust in government has risen. Part of the explanation for this effect is that ICT enabled government to be more transparent about decision-making, and well-informed and -educated citizens created a fourth democratic power all across Europe. Not the mass media, but individuals and organizations acting in their own interest demanded and enforced this transparency. Another reason why government is being trusted is that technical means to monitor the acts of citizens have not been used to their full potential. Enforcement of social and legal norms mainly is a human action, and has not been taken over but supported by automatic procedures. The Big Brother effect that ICT pervasiveness could have delivered did not occur.
Governments and their stakeholders
Government itself operates more and more like businesses do when it comes to the execution of their operational tasks. Non-core activities have been outsourced to private parties in public tendering procedures. Service provisioning around functions formerly thought to belong exclusively to the state's competence ? think about the issuing of passports and the administration around speeding bills ? still take place under the responsibility of a governmental body, but private parties are responsible for all its daily executions. Also, many public tasks in the healthcare sector and around social security are being executed by the market. Although firm regulations exist that ensure a smooth and fair working of them, with specific attention for socially disadvantaged groups. Initially, the key driver for outsourcing was cost effectiveness and the incapacity of governments to execute all inclusive services. Public-private partnerships have been established, and European tendering procedures have been altered in order to allow for selection frameworks that leave more room for innovation. Now private parties have more opportunities to operate public services on a contract basis, while they carry responsibility for the quality and development of these services at the same time. A consequence of the fact that the provisioning of eServices is transferred to the private sector is that services are targeted at the average citizen (the European equivalent of John Doe), because personalized services do not reach enough critical mass to be commercially viable. Public sector is responsible to ensure the provision of public services but private sector implements and executes these services. Quality of public services differs because through extra fees citizens can buy faster execution and higher quality of services. Something that still needs to be developed is the integration between physical and virtual channels, as they are mere complements to each other. Although partnerships between governments and private parties are in place, different cultures and the limited scope of the government result in relatively closed and independent worlds. Private parties are trying to move the government to put regulation into place that enables the enforcement of technical standards, so that users are not bothered by the need to use multiple online identities. However, government responded that it doesn't see a role for itself in these matters, as standardization is preferably achieved through independent bodies, initiated by the needs and efforts of private parties.
Technology
Technology aspects do not dominate society. Each governmental organization has its own systems and technologies and mechanisms to pass information to other organizations. Standards are developed to integrate and connect systems. Due to the fragmentation, pollution of information is still a problem and results in bad decisions or not providing services to those who have the right to get the service. Some citizens? information is available from anywhere for all government agencies interacting with citizens or businesses. All interactions in each channel are stored and can be used for interacting with other channels.
